First guess for "Christmas Storm of 2009"

Ok so this is my first guess at the "Christmas Storm of 2009" or around there. I think there will be a nice little blizzard for the people back in Northern Iowa, Southern Minnesota, South East South Dakota and Nebraska. But of course this is my first guess at this storm, which means it is SUBJECT TO CHANGE. C.A.D or Cold Air Damming I think will have a pretty big thing for Most of NEPA, Catskill area of NY, and Hudson Valley of NY, (even though I dont think it is shown on my map). This storm reminds me a lot of a storm earlier this month where 6-10" of snow was dropped in most of NEPA and Upstate NY before a changeover to a wintry mix and ultimately, plain rain. This storm was very hard to forecast, mainly because most models don't really pick up on C.A.D until its kind of too late, so forecasters called 1-4" max. But that did not happen and I would not be surprised if the very same thing happens with most of NEPA. Also rain in most of NJ except for NW NJ. But the further east you are, the better shot you are going to have to miss the rain, but you might have to deal with above average temperatures, so snowmelt especially in Long Island may or may not become an issue. Also I am not going to get that much into the Northeast states yet until I see more model runs because it can be a wintry mix, rain ( though i think there will be some type of wintry precip before that if that were to happen) or Snow. To many questions for the Northeast right now. First guess maybe later tonight but no later than tomorrow. Check back for updates on the Northeast but for now I will just say it can be anything so check back.