Potential New Year's Winter Storm Preliminary map

Yeah that's right snow on New Year's. Sounds good to me, well this is my first preliminary map for this storm. There is still a lot of unknowns so I am not going to get into much except show the map to show you my current thinking and of course this map could and probably will change check back for more updates.

Possible Christmas Day Northeast Winter Storm

Ok here is a map that I made showing an expansive area of where significant Ice is possible. Closer you are to I-95 and the Big Cities, the better chance you have at getting Rain. Yeah rain unfortunately, but there should be people getting a significant Ice which is no fun either. Further North you are better chance you have at colder temperatures aloft and at the surface, forming snow. Up in Northern Upstate NY, Vermont, NH, Maine is where you have the best chance at seeing accumulating snow.

Christmas day winter storm of 2009

Ok here is a shot of the latest 12z GFS run surface temperature map. It shows that from NEPA northward, the main precip type could be completely frozen. The problem with that is, is that pretty much puts the chances of getting significant Icing well up, and we all know that Ice pretty much sucks, especially on Christmas. What happens, is that main low splits down near texas and heads Northeast towards the big cities and ultimately goes right over them. That makes places from NW NJ to just outside of Pittsburgh, south down the apps, the main precip type will then be mainly frozen. Some thing that is very interesting if you live in these areas. Check back for more information on this storm.

First guess for "Christmas Storm of 2009"

Ok so this is my first guess at the "Christmas Storm of 2009" or around there. I think there will be a nice little blizzard for the people back in Northern Iowa, Southern Minnesota, South East South Dakota and Nebraska. But of course this is my first guess at this storm, which means it is SUBJECT TO CHANGE. C.A.D or Cold Air Damming I think will have a pretty big thing for Most of NEPA, Catskill area of NY, and Hudson Valley of NY, (even though I dont think it is shown on my map). This storm reminds me a lot of a storm earlier this month where 6-10" of snow was dropped in most of NEPA and Upstate NY before a changeover to a wintry mix and ultimately, plain rain. This storm was very hard to forecast, mainly because most models don't really pick up on C.A.D until its kind of too late, so forecasters called 1-4" max. But that did not happen and I would not be surprised if the very same thing happens with most of NEPA. Also rain in most of NJ except for NW NJ. But the further east you are, the better shot you are going to have to miss the rain, but you might have to deal with above average temperatures, so snowmelt especially in Long Island may or may not become an issue. Also I am not going to get that much into the Northeast states yet until I see more model runs because it can be a wintry mix, rain ( though i think there will be some type of wintry precip before that if that were to happen) or Snow. To many questions for the Northeast right now. First guess maybe later tonight but no later than tomorrow. Check back for updates on the Northeast but for now I will just say it can be anything so check back.

Possible Christmas Day East Coast Storm?

So this is what it looks like right now, We are going to have a Low pressure system drop in from The Pacific Northwest and as it progresses it will eventually gain strength and tap into Gulf of Mexico moisture and then head up into the Great lakes. As it tracks up towards the Great lakes it spawns another low pressure system. That low pressure system will them track up the coast inland and creating havoc with possible Snow, Ice and Heavy rain. Cold air damming, I believe will have a big factor in this storm, mainly because high temperatures will only be in the middle 30's to lower 40's. So if the CAD can stay in place, I think there will be places that can possibly pick up significant snow and/or Ice.

11:05 p.m. Ehh.. I don't understand these models update

 This is a shot of the total precip from the latest NAM run. Yeah so this is the story. The NAM over the past two runs have shown a nice 12"+ storm from the coast until the Eastern Pennsylvania. On the other hand the GFS is still being stubborn and still shows an Offshore solution and has not really budged, which possibly scares me. I do believe that the track will be similar to the 12z Euro run but with a little less precip than the 00z NAM. I would say that the highest amounts will be in DC, with amounts of 12"-18"+. The cut off with the precip will be sharp so if you are in PA, the closer you are to the PA/NJ border, the better the chances are that you will get 6"+. I'm seeing VA Beach with maybe a bit of a mix but more rain that wintry mix. NYC i see at 6-10" maybe more maybe less. NW of NYC could have as much as 14 or more inches of snow, but that is only if the track is right.

1:55 p.m. "The perfect storm of 2009" Euro update

This is a shot of what kind of precip that can fall out of the clouds if the latest Euro run were to come true. To tell you the truth I thought there was not going to be a model that was going to show snow for anyone north of the Mason-Dixon line except philly. I usually don't wishcast but if there was a storm that I want to see, its this. 2 feet of snow in Virginia and 13-17inches of snow in NYC and 14-18inches in philly. DC/Baltimore gets 1-2 feet of snow. This run was what a snow lover wants to see. A big precip shield up and down the coast, as one person said on the accuweather.com, this would be EPIC!

8:40 p.m. Percentage snow map update

Ok this is my percentage snow map. In the end I believe that the Big Cities will end up being the BIG winners. Even if the storm goes either more west i believe that this is what is ultimately going to happen.

11:25 a.m. 12z GFS update

The latest 12z GFS continues the latest westward and northward trend. At this point for the major cities and points north and west of them will get snow only if if were to shift 100 more miles to the west over a span of 4 days. That is barely a shift in meteorlogical terms. Also also Joe Bastardi of Accuweather.com, says that because this is 4 days out, the models are not showing the fact that there is some seriously warm water right by the Mid-Atlantic states. He says that the storm will naturally try to go more west to the warmer water, and then when it gets there it will evolve quickly and give the I-95 corridor a blizzard. At this point it is very possible and I would not be surprised if that happened. This is a shot of the latest GFS precip maps.

10:00 a.m. 06z NAM run

Here is what needs to happen to get our storm. The latest NAM run, i would  say, is very promising. It is definitely west by a bit and it has a much better precip shield. The thing that is killing the hopes of everyone who wants snow is, there is too much cold air to put it simply.

1:30 a.m. 00z Euro

The 00z Euro just showed about the complete oppossite of what it showed last night, in a bad way. The Euro began the run looking good but then just decided to go right off the NC coast  out of nowhere really. I do believe the chances of the snow-lovers storm just got knocked down a bit, although I am not going to say its a no go until thursday night. All the models except for this last Euro run trended west, but the Euro went east. Kind of weird, I will keep you guys posted on new developments later on today.

11:35 p.m. 0z GFS update

This is a shot from the secondary low formed off the original. The latest GFS run did something pretty strange, yet something very interesting to watch. In the beginning the setup was pretty good. The low was getting rather large, so what happened was, it was like the Low was taking off weight on the original low and made another one that rode up the coast. Overall except for the Double-Barrelled low thing was pretty good IMO. Interesting to watch for sure.

7:45 p.m. Thoughts on Inconsistency with the models.

My thoughts with what is going on with the models is that I think they are confused. The latest GFS model looked promising in the beginning and then everything started to fall apart. I believe it is because the models just are not into their deadly range where all the runs are pretty similiar. Although the GFS model has been consistent with an OTS solution, it starts out as if it is going to go up the coast and spread snow through out the Northeast. Also the past two GFS runs are a lot more different than what you initially see, until you see the run before it. The 18z run is North and in fact a little west until it reaches NC. Thats when it decides to go OTS. The 12z run also is more east and is not as much of a defined storm, the precip is kind of strung out and not typical. That is because this storm is 5 days away. As we continue over the next few days i do expect for the GFS to be more defined, more like the Euro, and move a bit more west and have that negative tilt that we are looking for. With the Euro model, which i believe is ahead of most of the model, shows a much more defined Low pressure system that heads NE and ends up just a bit East of Long Island.  With a 982 mb low there will be a bigger precip shield but that comes with time. All in all I believe the Euro seems to have the best handle on the storm and I do expect the GFS to catch up sometime within the next 48 hours.

5:15 p.m. 18z GFS run

The 18z GFS run had a High pressure right to the east of the main low. Which was weird because it seemed like it had no affect on which way the storm decided to go, and once again the GFS is showing the storm going way OTS. The setup in the beginning looked good so thats a good thing to look at, but then it barely phased if it did at all. Did not get that negative tilt we were looking for and once again the High pressure pushed it off OTS. The GFS has been consistent with its OTS solution which scares me but it is starting to setup similar to the other storms that do have Nor'Easters. A good run for setup and a bad run for pretty much everything else, but again it is 5 days out.

3:55 NAM 84hr update

This is a shot of the NAM and it looks really good. There is a nice precip shield, its organized, and its hugging the coast down in North Carolina. Again this is as far as it goes out. But its a nice shot and it is definitely more west than the 12z run of the GFS which is a good sign.

3:45 p.m. Chance of accumulating snow update

Chance of Accumulating snow map. This is my map, i looked at all the models and i do believe that this storm that is to affect the Northeast US will spread snow as far back as State College, PA and more than likely I do believe that coastal areas will end up with the best snow totals at this point, again this is just what i see right now. But it is 5 days away.

3:10 p.m. KMA model run

The KMA model is interesting to say the least. What it shows is a main low that hits NC and then breaks OTS. But as it does it spawns another low right around NYC giving Inland areas and SNE and pretty nice touch of snow. I would say probably 3-6 inches of snow. Regardless still 5 days away. I think one thing that I can say is that there will be a storm that will start out around florida and work its way either A. North or B. Northeast and OTS. Very interesting setup so far and there will be more to come. Here is a shot of the KMA.

2:15 p.m. CMC model Update

This model is not used like the GFS and the Euro model, it does not have that popularity, but this is an interesting model. This model, the CMC, is a model to just take a look at. The CMC model is showing a pretty strong coastal low track right up the coast spreading snow as far back as State College, PA. Just food for thought.

1:40 p.m. Euro Model

The European model shows a hit for everyone from NC to VA to Eastern Maryland to South Jersey. While this run is significant, the storm is 5 days away and i can guarantee you that these models are going to change for better of for worse. All that needs to happen now for everyone from NC to ME to get snow is really simple. It just needs to go a bit more west. If that happens most of the Eastern Seaboard will get crushed including all of the big cities. This is a map of the where the Heaviest snow will fall based on the Euro.

12:15 areas of interest update

Ok this map is going to show, what I think is the areas of interest at this time for this upcoming weekend.

11:45 a.m. new 12z GFS

Well there is officially a new GFS model. The para model has replaced it and it shows a more defined and more phased storm, but it kind of hits the Southern Mid-Atlantic before going OTS. But it is well west from where the 6z run had the primary low, and thats a good sign. Also it shows that it wants to bring the storm up the coast but there is the big high pressure in the way that keeps pushing it OTS. What needs to happen is that pocket of cold air has to dig to allow it to come up the coast and turn this into a big storm.

1:45 a.m. 00z ECM

You know I honestly did not think it was going to post anything for this but when you see this picture you will shat yourself lol. This is the absolute benchmark storm coming from one of the better models. A 982 low just east of Long Island, perfect temps, perfect storm. Unfortunately thats what scares me. If this was two days before the storm I would be going absoloutely nuts. Anyways what the ECM shows would be a storm from the gods.

11:30 00z GFS run

The 00z GFS run was not the run saying, absolutely positively is the NorthEast going to get a big snowstorm. It was a run that is good not showing a bomb over the Northeastern United States because it showed most of the factors that the other models that did have bombs showed except for, earlier phasing and more interaction with the clipper storm to make the low pressure system stronger. Most people will look at this run as, "of course OTS, mid-atlantic gets nothing as usual", no what it is showing is hope for this storm seems how it is about 5 and a half days away. That's all i got for now but stay tuned and please take the poll! I would really like to see how many hits I can get from this storm alone.

JMA pics

Here is a shot from the JMA model, the shot speaks for itself.

10:00 update

Well the Nam model, which has been the most consistent and reliable model, shows are pretty juicy storm I must say. The model only goes out to 84 hours but it looks like the storm starts to come together in the Gulf of Mexico. The JMA model shows the Northeast getting pounded with nearly 30 inches of snow, which is not at all impossible it is just not likely. Well that will do it for now i will post JMA shots after this post. Here is the NAM at 84 hours.

If the JMA verified

If the JMA model verified, The Northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern US would be one big snow ball, so why dont i show you where the significant snow and heaviest snow would fall if it verified.

18z para

The 18z para model has come into consistency with the JMA model which showed an absolute bomb, bombing out at 963 mb and now the 18z para while taking a track OTS has a similar 966 mb low pressure.

18z GFS update

The 18z GFS is out to sea but it shows the storm much more amplified than the previous 12z gfs run. But then again this storm is still pretty much a week away. I can guarantee that the models will change for the better or for the worse.

Amazing

This is coming from a canadian model i believe, Shows a 963 low just east of LI with a massive precip shield:

Possible Heavy snow Map

Possible Heavy snow may paralyze most of the Northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern US, according to the JMA model. This is where the snow would fall:

Snowfall this weekend?

According to some recent model runs, a few of them are showing a possible weekend snow storm for the Northern Mid-Atlantic and North-East US. So what is possible? Well what should happen is, a Clipper Storm will come out of Canada and throw light snowfall from Minnesota to Ohio to Northern Virginia up to Pennsylvania before spawning a storm off the Southern Virginia/ North Carolina Coast. This storm should head Northeast off the Eastern seaboard before throwing possible significant snow inland. Thing is, this storm is supposed to happen this upcoming sunday which is 6 days away. So model guidance is going to change so, I will keep you posted.

Possible weekend Snow Storm? 12/19-12/21

Possible Weekend snow storm for the Northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast United States. So what is going on? Well, there is supposed to be a nice little clipper storm that will come down out of canada spread light snow from Northern Virginia to Maryland to Pennsylvania and possibly New Jersey before possibly spawning another low pressure system off the North Carolina coast, before riding up the Eastern Seaboard spreading Heavy snow up the Eastern seaboard.