8:40 p.m. Percentage snow map update

Ok this is my percentage snow map. In the end I believe that the Big Cities will end up being the BIG winners. Even if the storm goes either more west i believe that this is what is ultimately going to happen.

11:25 a.m. 12z GFS update

The latest 12z GFS continues the latest westward and northward trend. At this point for the major cities and points north and west of them will get snow only if if were to shift 100 more miles to the west over a span of 4 days. That is barely a shift in meteorlogical terms. Also also Joe Bastardi of Accuweather.com, says that because this is 4 days out, the models are not showing the fact that there is some seriously warm water right by the Mid-Atlantic states. He says that the storm will naturally try to go more west to the warmer water, and then when it gets there it will evolve quickly and give the I-95 corridor a blizzard. At this point it is very possible and I would not be surprised if that happened. This is a shot of the latest GFS precip maps.

10:00 a.m. 06z NAM run

Here is what needs to happen to get our storm. The latest NAM run, i would  say, is very promising. It is definitely west by a bit and it has a much better precip shield. The thing that is killing the hopes of everyone who wants snow is, there is too much cold air to put it simply.

1:30 a.m. 00z Euro

The 00z Euro just showed about the complete oppossite of what it showed last night, in a bad way. The Euro began the run looking good but then just decided to go right off the NC coast  out of nowhere really. I do believe the chances of the snow-lovers storm just got knocked down a bit, although I am not going to say its a no go until thursday night. All the models except for this last Euro run trended west, but the Euro went east. Kind of weird, I will keep you guys posted on new developments later on today.

11:35 p.m. 0z GFS update

This is a shot from the secondary low formed off the original. The latest GFS run did something pretty strange, yet something very interesting to watch. In the beginning the setup was pretty good. The low was getting rather large, so what happened was, it was like the Low was taking off weight on the original low and made another one that rode up the coast. Overall except for the Double-Barrelled low thing was pretty good IMO. Interesting to watch for sure.

7:45 p.m. Thoughts on Inconsistency with the models.

My thoughts with what is going on with the models is that I think they are confused. The latest GFS model looked promising in the beginning and then everything started to fall apart. I believe it is because the models just are not into their deadly range where all the runs are pretty similiar. Although the GFS model has been consistent with an OTS solution, it starts out as if it is going to go up the coast and spread snow through out the Northeast. Also the past two GFS runs are a lot more different than what you initially see, until you see the run before it. The 18z run is North and in fact a little west until it reaches NC. Thats when it decides to go OTS. The 12z run also is more east and is not as much of a defined storm, the precip is kind of strung out and not typical. That is because this storm is 5 days away. As we continue over the next few days i do expect for the GFS to be more defined, more like the Euro, and move a bit more west and have that negative tilt that we are looking for. With the Euro model, which i believe is ahead of most of the model, shows a much more defined Low pressure system that heads NE and ends up just a bit East of Long Island.  With a 982 mb low there will be a bigger precip shield but that comes with time. All in all I believe the Euro seems to have the best handle on the storm and I do expect the GFS to catch up sometime within the next 48 hours.

5:15 p.m. 18z GFS run

The 18z GFS run had a High pressure right to the east of the main low. Which was weird because it seemed like it had no affect on which way the storm decided to go, and once again the GFS is showing the storm going way OTS. The setup in the beginning looked good so thats a good thing to look at, but then it barely phased if it did at all. Did not get that negative tilt we were looking for and once again the High pressure pushed it off OTS. The GFS has been consistent with its OTS solution which scares me but it is starting to setup similar to the other storms that do have Nor'Easters. A good run for setup and a bad run for pretty much everything else, but again it is 5 days out.

3:55 NAM 84hr update

This is a shot of the NAM and it looks really good. There is a nice precip shield, its organized, and its hugging the coast down in North Carolina. Again this is as far as it goes out. But its a nice shot and it is definitely more west than the 12z run of the GFS which is a good sign.

3:45 p.m. Chance of accumulating snow update

Chance of Accumulating snow map. This is my map, i looked at all the models and i do believe that this storm that is to affect the Northeast US will spread snow as far back as State College, PA and more than likely I do believe that coastal areas will end up with the best snow totals at this point, again this is just what i see right now. But it is 5 days away.

3:10 p.m. KMA model run

The KMA model is interesting to say the least. What it shows is a main low that hits NC and then breaks OTS. But as it does it spawns another low right around NYC giving Inland areas and SNE and pretty nice touch of snow. I would say probably 3-6 inches of snow. Regardless still 5 days away. I think one thing that I can say is that there will be a storm that will start out around florida and work its way either A. North or B. Northeast and OTS. Very interesting setup so far and there will be more to come. Here is a shot of the KMA.

2:15 p.m. CMC model Update

This model is not used like the GFS and the Euro model, it does not have that popularity, but this is an interesting model. This model, the CMC, is a model to just take a look at. The CMC model is showing a pretty strong coastal low track right up the coast spreading snow as far back as State College, PA. Just food for thought.

1:40 p.m. Euro Model

The European model shows a hit for everyone from NC to VA to Eastern Maryland to South Jersey. While this run is significant, the storm is 5 days away and i can guarantee you that these models are going to change for better of for worse. All that needs to happen now for everyone from NC to ME to get snow is really simple. It just needs to go a bit more west. If that happens most of the Eastern Seaboard will get crushed including all of the big cities. This is a map of the where the Heaviest snow will fall based on the Euro.