Map for Rain and Back-End snowstorm November 28th-30th

Here is my first map of the Season, just a quick one showing where the rain will be and who has a chance at some back-end snow as our temperatures crash. Another post will be up soon discussing a possible clipper storm and even bigger storm around the 7th-10th of December.

November 28th-30th Rain/Back-end Snow storm

Ahh back into swing of things here at Poconos Blizzard forecasting for the winter. Our first storm that I am going to talk about right now is a storm that is currently happening right now! There is going to be rain and a lot of it probably as much as 3-5" with locally higher amounts. What is interesting about this though is the fact that there could be some pretty good Backend snows as the 850's Just crash and Probably places from Extreme NW NJ through the Poconos(most likely the higher elevations) all the way back through State College could see some heavy snow flakes and could probably accumalate as much as 4 or possibly more inches of snow, but that will probably be accros central and Western PA. That is all I have for Now on this but I will be posting a quick preliminary map for heavy rain and where the backend snows will be at.

Scenario maps for possible weekend storm

These are the scenario maps for this weekend's possible storm. Scenario A shows a moisture loaded low comes out of the Gulf of Mexico and turns into a full blown Nor'Easter I would put about 45% confidence into this happening at this point. Scenario B shows a storm come out of the Gulf and head NE OTS because of two supressing HP's and that gives no one north of virginia anything, and NC mountains end up with Ice and/or Heavy snow, I would put about 35% confidence in this happening and the other 15% into maybe and appalachian mountain runner and 5% on no storm for anyone at this point.

Possible Weekend Northern Mid-Atlantic Winter Storm

Ok so this is what is going on, We have a couple of factors from keeping this a widespread Major Snowstorm, First off is the track, The track is going to be influenced by a High pressure placement. This storm is going originate in the Gulf of Mexico and it is going to gather a LOT of moisture. What I think is going to end up happening is, there is going to be a storm that heads toward the appalachian mountains and will eventually transfer its energy to the Virginia coast spreading heavy rain from Eastern Texas to louisianna and up to Southern Virginia, at which time it transfers its energy to the coast and spreads Ice and rain up the coast to NYC while spreading Heavy snow inland from NNJ to Central PA but snow all the way to eastern Ohio. Problem is, is that according to the models there is going to be a high pressure right near Boston,MA but it is not strong so for anyone south and east of Allentown, PA will end up being rain and/or Ice. Thats all that I have right now, as for most storms nearly a week out there is a lot more questions than answers and on wednesday I will probably do another update on the storm.

6:40 p.m. Second to last Snow map for Clipper January 7th-10th

Here is my second to last snow map for the Alberta clipper that will cross the country and affect the mid-west and Mid-Atlantic. A clipper that is currently affect montanna will cross the country over the next 48 hours and will drop advisory level snow across the PA, WV, NW NJ, MD, DE. Although there is not going to be a lot of qpf, there will be rather high liquid to snow ratios at a clip of 20-30:1 across the Northern Mid-Atlantic.

Potential New Year's Winter Storm Preliminary map

Yeah that's right snow on New Year's. Sounds good to me, well this is my first preliminary map for this storm. There is still a lot of unknowns so I am not going to get into much except show the map to show you my current thinking and of course this map could and probably will change check back for more updates.

Possible Christmas Day Northeast Winter Storm

Ok here is a map that I made showing an expansive area of where significant Ice is possible. Closer you are to I-95 and the Big Cities, the better chance you have at getting Rain. Yeah rain unfortunately, but there should be people getting a significant Ice which is no fun either. Further North you are better chance you have at colder temperatures aloft and at the surface, forming snow. Up in Northern Upstate NY, Vermont, NH, Maine is where you have the best chance at seeing accumulating snow.

Christmas day winter storm of 2009

Ok here is a shot of the latest 12z GFS run surface temperature map. It shows that from NEPA northward, the main precip type could be completely frozen. The problem with that is, is that pretty much puts the chances of getting significant Icing well up, and we all know that Ice pretty much sucks, especially on Christmas. What happens, is that main low splits down near texas and heads Northeast towards the big cities and ultimately goes right over them. That makes places from NW NJ to just outside of Pittsburgh, south down the apps, the main precip type will then be mainly frozen. Some thing that is very interesting if you live in these areas. Check back for more information on this storm.

First guess for "Christmas Storm of 2009"

Ok so this is my first guess at the "Christmas Storm of 2009" or around there. I think there will be a nice little blizzard for the people back in Northern Iowa, Southern Minnesota, South East South Dakota and Nebraska. But of course this is my first guess at this storm, which means it is SUBJECT TO CHANGE. C.A.D or Cold Air Damming I think will have a pretty big thing for Most of NEPA, Catskill area of NY, and Hudson Valley of NY, (even though I dont think it is shown on my map). This storm reminds me a lot of a storm earlier this month where 6-10" of snow was dropped in most of NEPA and Upstate NY before a changeover to a wintry mix and ultimately, plain rain. This storm was very hard to forecast, mainly because most models don't really pick up on C.A.D until its kind of too late, so forecasters called 1-4" max. But that did not happen and I would not be surprised if the very same thing happens with most of NEPA. Also rain in most of NJ except for NW NJ. But the further east you are, the better shot you are going to have to miss the rain, but you might have to deal with above average temperatures, so snowmelt especially in Long Island may or may not become an issue. Also I am not going to get that much into the Northeast states yet until I see more model runs because it can be a wintry mix, rain ( though i think there will be some type of wintry precip before that if that were to happen) or Snow. To many questions for the Northeast right now. First guess maybe later tonight but no later than tomorrow. Check back for updates on the Northeast but for now I will just say it can be anything so check back.

Possible Christmas Day East Coast Storm?

So this is what it looks like right now, We are going to have a Low pressure system drop in from The Pacific Northwest and as it progresses it will eventually gain strength and tap into Gulf of Mexico moisture and then head up into the Great lakes. As it tracks up towards the Great lakes it spawns another low pressure system. That low pressure system will them track up the coast inland and creating havoc with possible Snow, Ice and Heavy rain. Cold air damming, I believe will have a big factor in this storm, mainly because high temperatures will only be in the middle 30's to lower 40's. So if the CAD can stay in place, I think there will be places that can possibly pick up significant snow and/or Ice.

11:05 p.m. Ehh.. I don't understand these models update

 This is a shot of the total precip from the latest NAM run. Yeah so this is the story. The NAM over the past two runs have shown a nice 12"+ storm from the coast until the Eastern Pennsylvania. On the other hand the GFS is still being stubborn and still shows an Offshore solution and has not really budged, which possibly scares me. I do believe that the track will be similar to the 12z Euro run but with a little less precip than the 00z NAM. I would say that the highest amounts will be in DC, with amounts of 12"-18"+. The cut off with the precip will be sharp so if you are in PA, the closer you are to the PA/NJ border, the better the chances are that you will get 6"+. I'm seeing VA Beach with maybe a bit of a mix but more rain that wintry mix. NYC i see at 6-10" maybe more maybe less. NW of NYC could have as much as 14 or more inches of snow, but that is only if the track is right.

1:55 p.m. "The perfect storm of 2009" Euro update

This is a shot of what kind of precip that can fall out of the clouds if the latest Euro run were to come true. To tell you the truth I thought there was not going to be a model that was going to show snow for anyone north of the Mason-Dixon line except philly. I usually don't wishcast but if there was a storm that I want to see, its this. 2 feet of snow in Virginia and 13-17inches of snow in NYC and 14-18inches in philly. DC/Baltimore gets 1-2 feet of snow. This run was what a snow lover wants to see. A big precip shield up and down the coast, as one person said on the accuweather.com, this would be EPIC!